New training phase

The disappointment of getting 47:53 at Sentrumsløpet has faded somewhat.  I don't want to dwell on it, but it's worth looking at what went wrong:

• Going out too hard was a mistake.
• It was slightly hillier than I expected.
• I was about 1.5kg overweight.

If I'd adopted a similar strategy to Holmestrand but put in my typical 10k effort, then that should have made me 3% faster.  On the other hand Sentrumsløpet was a bit hillier (77m climb instead of 60m), and that would have cost me about 1%.  Overall I should therefore have done about 47:02 if I'd paced it correctly.  But even if I'd got it completely right 46:30 was probably slightly out of reach.

So how do I turn 47:53 into 46:30?

• Find a flat race.  A dead flat course should save me 48 seconds, based on my fitness calculation.
• Pace it correctly.  Could be 51 seconds, as calculated above (or even more - I surely didn't pace Holmestrand perfectly).
• Lose weight.  Losing that extra 1.5kg should translate to 51 seconds, and there's plenty of scope to lose a few more kilos after that.
• Get fitter.  Impossible to predict.

I'm considering Fornebuløpet on 20th May.  That only has 24m of elevation change, so a decent time should be possible.

The London 10k on 12th July is a different story - 128m of elevation change.  Don't think I'll be setting any records there.

Bleurgh

Tried for 46:30 but just didn't have it in me. Lost time on every uphill and couldn't make it back on the downhills. Finished in 47:53. Average HR was 186, so you can't say I didn't try - that's about 5bpm above what I'd expect for a 10k.

Splits were 23:19 / 24:34. Yuck.

Weight loss

My biggest challenge seems to be losing weight rather than training. I aimed to lose 5kg over 4 months and have barely managed half that.

So I have a new plan: I've committed to lose the last 2.5kg over the next 10 weeks at https://www.stickk.com/ and put $250 on the line to motivate myself.

Hopefully a monetary incentive will do the trick!

Holmestrand 10k

Ran the Holmestrand 10k today in 48 minutes dead. Ran slightly within myself with an average HR of 178 (181 is my target for a 10k) but my Garmin had the course at only 9.86km, and the extra 140m would have taken 40 seconds.

46:30 at Sentrumsløpet in 2 weeks is looking challenging. While my training has gone well I'm about 2.5kg heavier than I need to be, which will probably make all the difference.