New training phase

The disappointment of getting 47:53 at Sentrumsløpet has faded somewhat.  I don't want to dwell on it, but it's worth looking at what went wrong:

• Going out too hard was a mistake.
• It was slightly hillier than I expected.
• I was about 1.5kg overweight.

If I'd adopted a similar strategy to Holmestrand but put in my typical 10k effort, then that should have made me 3% faster.  On the other hand Sentrumsløpet was a bit hillier (77m climb instead of 60m), and that would have cost me about 1%.  Overall I should therefore have done about 47:02 if I'd paced it correctly.  But even if I'd got it completely right 46:30 was probably slightly out of reach.

So how do I turn 47:53 into 46:30?

• Find a flat race.  A dead flat course should save me 48 seconds, based on my fitness calculation.
• Pace it correctly.  Could be 51 seconds, as calculated above (or even more - I surely didn't pace Holmestrand perfectly).
• Lose weight.  Losing that extra 1.5kg should translate to 51 seconds, and there's plenty of scope to lose a few more kilos after that.
• Get fitter.  Impossible to predict.

I'm considering Fornebuløpet on 20th May.  That only has 24m of elevation change, so a decent time should be possible.

The London 10k on 12th July is a different story - 128m of elevation change.  Don't think I'll be setting any records there.