Mixed feelings

I've always said that my minimum goal for a half marathon is to do it in under 2 hours.  I've cut it close twice before (1:59 in 2013 and 1:58 in 2014) but yesterday I finally fell short with 2:00:15 in the Oslo Half Marathon.

I only ran 100km in training in the previous 12 weeks, which I knew wasn't really enough - it's a good predictor of my race time, and forecast a race time of 2:02, plus or minus 3 minutes.  So 2 hours was possible but unlikely.

On the plus side I had a good idea of my limitations going into the race, and I had a plan to mitigate them as far as possible.  I knew my legs would be the limiting factor, and that I'd probably suffer cramp in the last 5km, so my aim was:

• Run a steady pace.
• No overtaking or weaving through the crowds.
• Relax.

I was lucky to find myself in a crowd running my goal pace, so I managed to stick to the plan throughout.  I had the first sign of cramp in some hills around the 15-16km mark, but ran through it and managed a moderately quick last km and even a sprint finish - but by that stage I knew that 2 hours was out of reach.

So I'm happy with my performance on the day - it was pretty hot as well, which didn't help - but disappointed at how lazy I've been over the last 3 months.

Sick :-(

For the second year in a row I'm going to miss Fornebuløpet with a cold. I could have powered through and done it anyway, but I doubt I would have done well and I can't imagine it would improve my health.

Next year I'll delay signing up until the last minute!

Unfortunately that means I'm unlikely to break my 10k PB this year - London will just be too hilly. Ah well.

New training phase

The disappointment of getting 47:53 at Sentrumsløpet has faded somewhat.  I don't want to dwell on it, but it's worth looking at what went wrong:

• Going out too hard was a mistake.
• It was slightly hillier than I expected.
• I was about 1.5kg overweight.

If I'd adopted a similar strategy to Holmestrand but put in my typical 10k effort, then that should have made me 3% faster.  On the other hand Sentrumsløpet was a bit hillier (77m climb instead of 60m), and that would have cost me about 1%.  Overall I should therefore have done about 47:02 if I'd paced it correctly.  But even if I'd got it completely right 46:30 was probably slightly out of reach.

So how do I turn 47:53 into 46:30?

• Find a flat race.  A dead flat course should save me 48 seconds, based on my fitness calculation.
• Pace it correctly.  Could be 51 seconds, as calculated above (or even more - I surely didn't pace Holmestrand perfectly).
• Lose weight.  Losing that extra 1.5kg should translate to 51 seconds, and there's plenty of scope to lose a few more kilos after that.
• Get fitter.  Impossible to predict.

I'm considering Fornebuløpet on 20th May.  That only has 24m of elevation change, so a decent time should be possible.

The London 10k on 12th July is a different story - 128m of elevation change.  Don't think I'll be setting any records there.

Bleurgh

Tried for 46:30 but just didn't have it in me. Lost time on every uphill and couldn't make it back on the downhills. Finished in 47:53. Average HR was 186, so you can't say I didn't try - that's about 5bpm above what I'd expect for a 10k.

Splits were 23:19 / 24:34. Yuck.

Weight loss

My biggest challenge seems to be losing weight rather than training. I aimed to lose 5kg over 4 months and have barely managed half that.

So I have a new plan: I've committed to lose the last 2.5kg over the next 10 weeks at https://www.stickk.com/ and put $250 on the line to motivate myself.

Hopefully a monetary incentive will do the trick!

Holmestrand 10k

Ran the Holmestrand 10k today in 48 minutes dead. Ran slightly within myself with an average HR of 178 (181 is my target for a 10k) but my Garmin had the course at only 9.86km, and the extra 140m would have taken 40 seconds.

46:30 at Sentrumsløpet in 2 weeks is looking challenging. While my training has gone well I'm about 2.5kg heavier than I need to be, which will probably make all the difference. 

Training review: Two weeks to 22 March

Getting close to my 10k races now - 3 weeks to Holmestrand, 5 weeks to Sentrumsløpet.  In the last two weeks:

• I was travelling for a week so did no running.  I also ate and drank far too much.  I'm afraid I score 0/20 for that week.
• This week I was a good boy: 43km vs 45km planned, drank less than usual.  I'll give myself 19/20 overall, only losing 1 point because I wasn't particularly restrained when it came to eating.

Running at race pace continues to be very tough, but I managed 3km at 12.2kph (4:55 per km) on slightly hilly ground at 179bpm.  In the race I need to sustain 12.9kph (4:39 per km) at 181bpm, so while I'm not there yet, I'm not a million miles away.  I also had a decent interval session with 7 400m intervals at 14kph, although arguably I should be capable of 15kph if I was race-fit.  In a tempo run I did badly, hitting 180bpm at only 11.5kph, and feeling unable to push it any further.

How I'll do in the races remains a mystery - I feel like my fitness is improving pretty well, but I could definitely benefit from a longer build-up.  But there's no harm in doing a couple of races now, resetting the training and then building up to a new target - if I keep putting in the miles then PBs will be sure to follow.  I have a 3rd chance at a 10k in July and then a half marathon in September.

2-8 March

Nice week of running - culminating in a very nice 14km run on Sunday 8th March.  First outside run of the year without spikes, and although I had to improvise a route to avoid a massive puddle, and ended up running up a down a series of steep hills, I felt really good.  This was backed up by my fitness score for the run - 13.2, the highest since August last year.


A total of 39.3km for the week, vs a plan of 40.  I stuck to the plan reasonably well, although I couldn't sustain 3km at race pace on Saturday - I managed a pace of 5:05 instead of 4:40.  That was on slushy ice/snow, wearing spikes and included some hills, so I'm not too dispirited.


The only negative factor is my weight loss, which has continued to stall.  I'm not really trying, and just hoping that all the running will fix it, and it doesn't seem to be working.  And things will continue to get worse next week when I'll be travelling for 6 days.


I'll award myself 17 out of 20 for the week, losing 3 points for my weight loss going nowhere.

23 Feb - 1 March

Pretty good week - 37km vs my plan of 38km.  Stuck to the schedule pretty well - most runs easy, but had 6x400m intervals at 13-14kph, which is starting to get reasonably tough.  I'm not planning to go any faster than 14kph.  5/5 for putting in the miles and peaking for the race.

Legs ached a bit after my long outdoor run on the 22nd, so I took it very easy on the 24th - only 6km instead of the planned 7, and a very easy pace.  Right now everything feels pretty good.  5/5 for making it to the start line.

Now for the fly in the ointment - I'm not making great progress at losing weight.  Still hovering at just under 72.5kg.  Wasn't super-greedy, but wasn't exactly abstemious either.  A mere 2/5 for weight loss.

So a total for the week of 17/20.

Managed a 16km run on the treadmill on Sunday.  Could have been fairly soul-destroying, but I watched Back to the Future (for perhaps the 100th time) and quite enjoyed myself!

16-22 Feb

Finally getting rid of the last of the cold/flu I've had for a couple of weeks.  I was feeling pretty grim at the start of the week and missed my planned run on Tuesday, but managed a good interval session on Thursday and had a lovely 15km outdoor run today.

• Was pretty unrestrained when it came to food this week - had 3 or 4 occasions where I ate for the sake of it rather than because I was hungry.  Progress with weight loss is non-existent or even backwards.  Now behind schedule.  2/5.
• 4/5 for putting in the miles - ran 34.5km vs a plan of 41.
• 4/5 for making it to the start line - I skipped a run when I felt bad, but was a bit aggressive getting back to doing intervals.  I seem to have gotten away with it though.
• 4/5 for peaking for the race - stuck to my plan pretty well this week, although my long Sunday run was a bit too fast.

Overall 14/20


My intervals on Thursday ranged from 12.5kph to 13.5kph.  I'll try ramping up from 13kph this week and stop increasing the pace when it feels too much for me.


My first outdoor run of the year was nice: +2C, blue skies, sunshine.  Wind picked up a bit towards the end but I wasn't cold.  Nice to get a data point from an outdoor run to confirm my fitness is roughly where I thought it was.

9 - 15 February

Unwell this week, and also travelling.  Only did one 5km run.

• Drank too much while travelling.  Weight loss: 2/5.
• Only 1/5 for putting in the miles.
• 5/5 for making it to the start line - took things very easy while sick.
• 3/5 for peaking for the race - certainly didn't overdo it.

Overall 11/20.

2 - 8 Feb: First intervals of the year

Had fun on Thursday with my first intervals of the year - 4x400m.  I wasn't sure what speed to run them at so I built up from 12 to 12.7kph.  They all felt OK - next time around I'll start with 12.5 and build up from there.


Here's my assessment of the week's running:

• My weight has rebounded slightly after the norovirus, but that's no surprise.  72.5kg this morning, which is pretty much on track.  6 beers this week, moderate restraint w.r.t food, no missed runs.  4/5
• Almost perfect record with distance this week - 39km vs 40km planned.  5/5
• The niggle in my hip is improving, but I have a new one in my knee.  I don't think I'm aggravating it by continuing to run.  I felt rubbish at the end of Saturday's run and stopped slightly early.  4/5 for making it to the start line.
• I stuck to the plan for the week, took the first set of intervals easy even though I felt capable of more reps or more speed.  5/5 for peaking for the race.

Overall 18/20.


I'm travelling next week, so it's an easy week - Tue-Thu are rest days, I'll do a total of 32km and no intervals.

26 Jan - 1 Feb: Norovirus

I've been sick as a dog for most of the weekend, so I've missed two runs this week.  On the plus side, it's done wonders for my weight loss!  Hopefully I'll be back to regularly scheduled running tomorrow.

Here's my assessment of the week:

• Although I was down to under 72kg this morning it won't be permanent.  I've been relatively restrained in terms of food and only had 7 beers, and although I've missed 21km of running I also missed a few meals.  A moderate 3/5 for weight loss.
• I ran 14km vs my target of 35km, but only due to sickness rather than laziness.  So I won't beat myself up too much - let's say 3/5 for putting in the miles.
• I bought some new running shoes to try and ward off my hip pain, and rested when I got sick.  5/5 for making to the start line.
• Only 2 short easy runs, so 5/5 for peaking for the race.

Overall 16/20.

I have my first interval session scheduled for Thursday this week - 4x400.  I'll be building up to 10x400 the week before the race.  Hal Higdon recommends doing them at mile race pace - based on my current fitness that's about 14kph (sounds fast!).  McMillan recommends 5km pace, or about 13kph.  Costill suggests 13kph for aerobic-anaerobic intervals, or 12kph for aerobic intervals.  I think I'll try 12kph for the first 400m, see how that feels, and step it up if it feels OK.

19-25 January

Here's my second weekly update:

• Another week of little progress regarding weight loss.  I've had 3 evenings out and one takeaway pizza, and plenty of beer and wine.  Despite that I'm still broadly on track to meet my race-day goal, so I'm not too concerned at this stage.  A poor 2/5 for weight loss.
• Ran 35km vs my target of 39km.  Missed a 7km run during the week due to family commitments, but partially made up for it with an extra few kilometres on the weekend runs.  I'll give myself 4/5 for putting in the miles.
• I've not been feeling too bad - legs ache a bit, but nothing excessive.  I've had a bit of hip pain in some runs - I think I might need some new shoes.  I'll take a 4/5 for making it to the start line.
• Lots more easy kilometres this week, so I'm going to give myself 5/5 for peaking for the race.

Overall I score 15/20 this week.

Weekly update

In the last week I have:

• Run 31km vs my plan of 33km.
• Seen my weight fluctuate between 74.1 and 72.6kg but finish the week back where I started.
• Roughly stuck to my running plan - I was planning runs of 7, 7, 7 and 12km, and in fact I did 9, 4, 6 and 12.  I would have slotted in an extra 7km run but was knackered after spending Sunday laying flooring in my kitchen.  I ache everywhere this morning, so it was probably good exercise.
• Been moderately restrained when it comes to eating.  I had 12 beers over the course of 3 evenings, but no random after-work drinks.  I reckon I took in 2400 calories from beer and expended 2500 while running.

Rating myself against my goals:

• 2/5 for weight loss - little if any progress this week, but at least I'm not going backwards.
• 4/5 for putting in the miles - didn't quite make it.
• 3/5 for making it to the start line - I think I'm OK, but I hurt in all sorts of places.
• 5/5 for peaking for the race - I was a good boy and ran lots of easy kilometres.

Overall: 14/20.

Goal #4: Peak for the race

In the past I've peaked at the wrong time.  For the half marathon in 2012 I did an entire half marathon at race pace two weeks before the race itself - the race felt much harder but my time was actually worse.  The 10k PB I'm trying to beat was actually a late peak for the marathon 2 weeks earlier - I didn't taper sufficiently.

So for this one I'm going to stick to my training plan, which has a gradual build-up in mileage and difficulty (tempo runs, intervals, race pace efforts) leading up to the race and then a 1 week taper.

Goal #3: Make it to the start line

I guess this should have been goal #1, but never mind.  "To finish first, you must first finish".  And in order to finish, you must start.  I'm not going to finish first, but I do want to get to the start line in good shape.  To minimize the chance of something going wrong, I'm not going to be trying anything new for the next few months (Hal Higdon's advanced 10k plan prescribes strength training, but that sounds like a recipe for disaster given I've done none for years).

If I pick up an injury, I'm going to take it easy until it starts feeling better - easy runs only.

Before any hard sessions I'll warm up.

Goal #2: Put in the miles

In 2012 I averaged 35km a week for 20 weeks leading up to a half marathon.  In that time my fitness (danieltebbutt.com/fitness.html) went from ~10 to ~12.5.

On 1st January my fitness was around 11.  46:30 in a 10k requires a fitness level of about 12.5.  That's a slower rate of increase than I managed in 2012, so if I can run at least 35km a week then that should put me in a good position.

So, goal #2 is to average at least 35km per week from 1st January to 25th April this year.  I've put together a plan that will see me doing between 30 and 50 km per week, averaging about 40.

Goal #1: Lose weight

On 1st January this year I weighed 75kg.  I'm 1.78m tall.  That's a BMI of about 23.7 - within the normal range, but certainly there's room to lose a few kilos.

The following calculator predicts a 34 second gain in a 10km race for every kilo I lose: http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/diet/weighteffect.  Minimum healthy BMI is 18.5, which is about 59kg for me.  I'm not in any immediate danger of being too skinny!

My goal for the race in April is to be under 70kg, which was my weight when I set my last PB.  If I go crazy and lose another 5kg that would translate to another 3 minutes on race day - worth considering as long as I don't mind temporarily sporting the skeletal look.

To lose a kilo I need a calorie deficit of about 7500.  That's only about 100km of running, which I'll be doing every 2-3 weeks during my training.  Getting under 70kg should be easy.

Another data point: in 2012 I lost 8kg in 6 months, basically just from running lots.  A similar rate of weight loss this time around would put me right around 70kg.

So this goal sounds like a doddle - let's see if that's how it proves in practice.

3-month aspiration: PB in Sentrumsløpet

In future posts I'm going to set several specific, measurable goals for myself.  Let's start with an aspiration: I'd like to beat my 10k PB on 25th April in Sentrumsløpet.  I need 46:30 or under to do that.  I think that's aggressive, and I'm not sure if it's achievable - but that's my over-riding aim.

In general terms, to get there I need to:

• Train a lot.
• Avoid peaking too early.
• Avoid injury and illness.
• Not be too fat at the starting line.

When I ran 46:31 I had just come off 3 months of marathon training, which meant:

• I did a lot of long, slow runs
• I didn't do any speed work
• I did some hills - outdoor running where I live leaves me little choice.

In fact, because I record all my runs I can do better than that - here's a summary of what I did in 2013 from the start of January:

• Celebrated the New Year by knackering my knee using a rowing machine.
• Did several treadmill runs and one outdoor run in January, at which point my fitness measure (see danieltebbutt.com/fitness.html) was about 13.  My knee hurt every time.
• Caught pneumonia and didn't run for a month, during which time my fitness measure fell to about 10.  But my knee got better!
• Ran 20, 46, 50, 20, 41, 30kms per week of mostly easy running for 6 weeks, including a half marathon in the final week.  All pretty easy effort.
• Ran 36, 50, 47kms in the following 3 weeks, including a marathon in the last week.  All pretty easy effort - except the marathon, obviously.  That wasn't easy at all.
• Ran 12km then 20km including Sentrumsløpet in a good time.
• By the end my fitness measure had just about recovered to 13.

You wouldn't pick it as a good preparation for a 10k race, would you? Surely I can do better this time.  What can I take from this experience?

• I can probably achieve a PB without speedwork, although that's not to say that won't help.
• Running a lot is good preparation, including lots of long runs.
• Getting sick and injured is a really bad idea.  Care is required when starting any unfamiliar exercise.
• Tapering is a good thing.
• Hard to say if sharpening was a factor - did the HM and marathon help with the 10k a few weeks later?  Maybe.  Certainly I don't need to be afraid of some hard efforts 2-6 weeks before the race.

Some challenges I face this time around:

• My starting fitness is about 11 instead of 13.
• I'm about 4kg overweight.

Another blog with no readers

I already have one blog that nobody reads (dansinvestments.blogspot.com) - why start another?  Not for everyone else's benefit - I'll never publicise it or encourage anyone else to read it, although of course some people will come across it and may read a few posts.  It's a trick to make myself more accountable, thereby encouraging me to:

• Keep running.
• Set goals and deliver on them
• Face up to failure and work out what went wrong.

I already have a load of historical data linked from www.danieltebbutt.com covering the running I've done since March 2012.  I've run over 2700km, taken part in 9 races (one marathon, four halfs, three 10ks and a partridge in a pear tree 5k), and spent 267 hours running.  My heart has beat about 2.6m times while I've been running, which is about 1.3m more than it would have done if I'd just been loafing about the house.  I've done a 10km race in 46:30, which is probably my best race performance, 2 weeks after my most disappointing race, when I failed to beat 4 hours for the marathon.

I'm currently training for Sentrumsløpet in April.  I've recently acquired a running machine so I can run through the winter.  My current challenges are:

• I'm at least 4kg over a sensible racing weight, so I need to lose that by April.  Running regularly and exercising some self-restraint regarding food and beer should do the trick.
• I appear to be pretty unfit, based on my performance on the treadmill (see danieltebbutt.com/fitness.html for details).  I did a half marathon in September on minimal training, took some time off after that after the weather went cold and before getting the treadmill, and that appears to have knocked me back a pretty long way.
• Using the treadmill is really convenient, and I have no problem finding 45 minutes or so to use it in the evening, but I've not yet summoned the motivation to do a long run on it - and I suspect this is holding me back.
• I don't seem to make progress year to year.  I regularly stop training for a month or two at a time, and it seems that this is enough for me to lose any fitness I previously gained, so I start again from scratch.

I'll formulate some specific goals in future posts, and then track my progress against them.