3-month aspiration: PB in Sentrumsløpet

In future posts I'm going to set several specific, measurable goals for myself.  Let's start with an aspiration: I'd like to beat my 10k PB on 25th April in Sentrumsløpet.  I need 46:30 or under to do that.  I think that's aggressive, and I'm not sure if it's achievable - but that's my over-riding aim.

In general terms, to get there I need to:

• Train a lot.
• Avoid peaking too early.
• Avoid injury and illness.
• Not be too fat at the starting line.

When I ran 46:31 I had just come off 3 months of marathon training, which meant:

• I did a lot of long, slow runs
• I didn't do any speed work
• I did some hills - outdoor running where I live leaves me little choice.

In fact, because I record all my runs I can do better than that - here's a summary of what I did in 2013 from the start of January:

• Celebrated the New Year by knackering my knee using a rowing machine.
• Did several treadmill runs and one outdoor run in January, at which point my fitness measure (see danieltebbutt.com/fitness.html) was about 13.  My knee hurt every time.
• Caught pneumonia and didn't run for a month, during which time my fitness measure fell to about 10.  But my knee got better!
• Ran 20, 46, 50, 20, 41, 30kms per week of mostly easy running for 6 weeks, including a half marathon in the final week.  All pretty easy effort.
• Ran 36, 50, 47kms in the following 3 weeks, including a marathon in the last week.  All pretty easy effort - except the marathon, obviously.  That wasn't easy at all.
• Ran 12km then 20km including Sentrumsløpet in a good time.
• By the end my fitness measure had just about recovered to 13.

You wouldn't pick it as a good preparation for a 10k race, would you? Surely I can do better this time.  What can I take from this experience?

• I can probably achieve a PB without speedwork, although that's not to say that won't help.
• Running a lot is good preparation, including lots of long runs.
• Getting sick and injured is a really bad idea.  Care is required when starting any unfamiliar exercise.
• Tapering is a good thing.
• Hard to say if sharpening was a factor - did the HM and marathon help with the 10k a few weeks later?  Maybe.  Certainly I don't need to be afraid of some hard efforts 2-6 weeks before the race.

Some challenges I face this time around:

• My starting fitness is about 11 instead of 13.
• I'm about 4kg overweight.